Why Ransomware Remains the Dominant Cyber Risk

What CISOs Must Prepare for in the Next 30, 60, and 90 Days 

Despite years of investment in cybersecurity controls, ransomware continues to dominate the cyber risk landscape. This persistence is not accidental, nor is it simply the result of attacker ingenuity. As the February 2026 Cyber Risk Forecast makes clear, ransomware remains the most reliable and scalable business model for cybercriminals—and in some cases, state‑aligned actors—entering 2026. 

For CISOs hoping that ransomware intensity would taper off after the turbulence of 2024 and 2025, the forecast offers a sobering but actionable message: ransomware pressure will remain elevated through at least the next 90 days, and the conditions that allow it to succeed are still firmly in place. 

Ransomware Has Not Cooled Off—It Has Stabilized at a High Level 

The forecast’s executive summary describes the current cyber environment as elevated and intensifying, with ransomware explicitly identified as a core, persistent threat. This framing is important. Rather than peaking and declining, ransomware activity has stabilized at a high operational baseline. 

Late 2025 data shows that ransomware attacks increased sharply across several sectors, with healthcare providers experiencing approximately a 50 percent increase in attacks. That surge did not represent a one‑time spike. Instead, it signaled renewed attacker confidence and operational momentum carrying into 2026. 

The forecast expects this pressure to continue in the short term, particularly in the next 30 days, as attackers exploit predictable organizational rhythms—post‑holiday staffing gaps, deferred patching, and partially implemented new‑year initiatives. In other words, ransomware is not surging because of new breakthroughs, but because the conditions for success remain consistent. 

Why Ransomware Keeps Working 

One of the most important insights in the forecast is that ransomware succeeds because it is reliable, not innovative. Attackers increasingly favor predictable intrusion paths that work across many organizations, rather than novel zero‑day exploits that are harder to operationalize. 

This is why the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEV) data matters so much in the ransomware context. Over 20 percent of KEVs are directly tied to ransomware activity, indicating that attackers are repeatedly using the same proven vulnerabilities to gain initial access. Ransomware crews do not need to guess which weaknesses may work—they already know which ones do. 

Once inside, attackers rely on a well‑understood sequence: credential harvesting, lateral movement, data exfiltration, encryption, and extortion. Each step is optimized for speed and efficiency. This repeatability explains why ransomware continues to generate reliable returns, even as organizations invest heavily in detection and prevention. 

Sector Hotspots: Healthcare and Manufacturing Remain Prime Targets 

The February forecast highlights healthcare and manufacturing as sectors requiring particular vigilance. Both environments share characteristics that are appealing to attackers: high uptime requirements, complex legacy infrastructure, and operational dependencies that make downtime especially costly. 

Healthcare’s late‑2025 attack surge—approximately a 50 percent increase—is especially telling. It demonstrates that attackers are willing to accept heightened scrutiny in exchange for higher leverage. When patient care or production lines are affected, organizations face intense pressure to restore operations quickly. 

Manufacturing faces a similar calculus. Industrial environments often lag in patching and segmentation, and downtime can cascade into significant financial and supply‑chain impacts. The forecast expects both sectors to remain under sustained pressure in the near term, rather than experiencing relief. 

The broader lesson for CISOs in all industries is this: ransomware targeting is less about novelty and more about economic leverage. 

The Next 30 Days: Continued Extortion Pressure 

Looking ahead, the forecast describes the next 30 days as highly active, with ransomware remaining at the forefront of cyber activity. There is no indication of a near‑term slowdown. 

January into February is highlighted as a period when attackers exploit the gap between awareness and execution. Many organizations enter the new year with improvement plans already defined, but not fully implemented. Attackers exploit that delay. 

In addition, early February is flagged as a period of heightened activity due to global events that increase noise in the threat landscape. Events such as the Winter Olympics create attention‑seeking opportunities for hacktivists and state‑aligned actors, which can distract security teams and mask ransomware intrusions occurring simultaneously. 

For CISOs, the near‑term implication is clear: assume ransomware attempts will continue at pace and ensure detection, response, and recovery capabilities are immediately ready. 

Sixty Days: Tactical Evolution, Not Relief 

By the 60‑day horizon, extending into March 2026, the forecast does not anticipate meaningful reduction in ransomware activity. Instead, it expects tactical evolution. 

Threat actors may rotate payloads, adjust extortion strategies, or shift targeting to avoid recently hardened environments. Of particular concern is the backlog of 245 KEVs added in 2025, which provides attackers with a rich supply of known weaknesses to exploit as they revisit previously scanned organizations. 

The forecast suggests that, by this point, many ransomware incidents may stem from older, unpatched vulnerabilities, rather than newly disclosed issues. This dynamic increases governance risk, as breaches become harder to defend externally when remediation was feasible but delayed. 

Ninety Days: A High‑Risk Plateau and Adaptive Adversaries 

At the 90‑day mark, through April 2026, ransomware risk is expected to remain at a high plateau. While some organizations will improve controls and recover from early‑year incidents, attackers are expected to adapt accordingly. 

The forecast anticipates refinements in ransomware operations, including faster encryption routines, increased use of supply‑chain entry points, and more disciplined targeting of organizations perceived as “softer.” As large enterprises improve defenses, ransomware crews may increasingly pivot toward mid‑market organizations, municipalities, and service providers. 

The key takeaway is that ransomware is not diminishing—it is reshaping to remain effective. 

Why CISOs Struggle Against Ransomware 

Many CISOs face a paradox. Mature organizations often have strong detection capabilities yet still experience ransomware incidents. This disconnect exists because ransomware outcomes are often determined after initial compromise. 

Once attackers establish persistent access, response speed becomes more important than prevention alone. The February forecast emphasizes this point repeatedly, noting that the first 24 to 48 hours of an incident often determine whether impact is contained or catastrophic. 

This is why ransomware resilience is not just a tooling problem. It is an operational discipline that spans incident response, backup integrity, communication processes, and executive decision‑making under pressure. 

Practical Focus: Resilience Over Prevention Alone 

The forecast’s implications section adopts a pragmatic stance: assume ransomware incidents will occur, and focus on minimizing damage. 

This includes: 

• verifying backup integrity and restoration timelines 

• rehearsing incident response playbooks regularly 

• segmenting critical systems and limiting privileged access 

• establishing clear escalation and communication paths 

Importantly, the forecast underscores that ransomware defense is not solely an IT issue. Business continuity, legal, communications, and executive leadership all play critical roles in determining outcomes. 

For CISOs, defensibility matters. Demonstrating proactive preparation—even in the face of inevitable attempts—can significantly reduce financial, operational, and reputational impact. 

Closing Thought 

Ransomware remains dominant not because organizations lack tools, but because attackers have mastered repeatability and leverage. The February 2026 Cyber Risk Forecast makes it clear that this dynamic is unlikely to change in the next 90 days. 

CISOs who frame ransomware risk as episodic or declining will be caught unprepared. Those who treat it as a standing operational threat—planned for, rehearsed, and communicated clearly—will be far better positioned to withstand what’s coming. 

Stay Ahead with the Cyber Risk Forecast 

The Cyber Risk Forecast subscription provides CISOs with an evidence‑based, forward‑looking view of enterprise cyber risk—updated regularly and framed in 30‑, 60‑, and 90‑day horizons. 

Each forecast translates ransomware trends, exploit patterns, and external signals into clear, defensible guidance you can use immediately to prioritize controls, brief executives, and prepare your organization before incidents occur. 

If you want to move from reactive ransomware response to forecast‑driven resilience, the Cyber Risk Forecast helps you focus on what matters most in the next quarter—before today’s threat becomes tomorrow’s crisis.